The recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, is not an isolated incident, but rather a manifestation of recurring patterns that history has repeatedly shown us, and ones we should have anticipated. The pertinent question remains: what are these patterns, and how could such attacks be prevented?
To begin with, it's crucial to recognize that militancy in Kashmir is no longer what it once was. Much like the final phase of any insurgency, we are now witnessing desperate, high-impact attacks aimed at retaining relevance. The assassination of Punjab Chief Minister Beant Singh is a prime example, an act committed when militancy in Punjab had nearly been extinguished. The Pahalgam attack mirrors this very pattern.
Another key indicator was the narrative pushed by Pakistan in recent months, framing tourism in Kashmir as a tool of “Indian colonialism.” Echoing this rhetoric, National Conference MP from Srinagar, Ruhullah Mehdi, repeated similar sentiments not long ago. This ideological line foreshadowed the possibility of militants targeting Kashmir’s tourism infrastructure.
Intelligence agencies were indeed wary of such intentions. It’s worth noting that hotel prices in Kashmir are 400–500% higher than in cities like Delhi or Mumbai, signaling the immense economic value tourism brings to the region. At one point, nearly 55% of Kashmir's population was dependent on the conflict economy, funded either by Pakistan or Indian government grants, or through direct association with security logistics. Today, this percentage is negligible, thanks largely to tourism.
If Pakistan intends to reignite insurgency in the region, dismantling the tourism industry becomes essential. Yet one attack is not enough, it would require a sustained campaign. However, India’s counter-terror capabilities in 2025 are significantly stronger than they were pre-2019, making such a campaign exceedingly difficult to execute.
A third notable aspect is the consistent correlation between high-profile U.S. visits to India and sudden unrest in Kashmir. When President Bill Clinton visited in 2000, the Chattisinghpora massacre took place. In 2006, just weeks after President George W. Bush’s trip, the Kulhand and Udhampur massacres occurred. The timing of the 2020 Delhi riots coincided perfectly with President Trump's visit. This raises valid concerns that Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit would similarly be marked by unrest, an expectation that, sadly, materialized.
From all three dimensions, it was evident that an attack was imminent. So why did Indian intelligence fail to intercept it? Was this an intelligence failure? In retrospect, patterns often become painfully clear, but forecasting specifics in advance is an immensely difficult task. Out of 500–600 foiled attempts, even a single success can be catastrophic.
The larger question is whether intelligence had any clear indication that Pahalgam, and tourists specifically, were the chosen targets.
Two other critical questions arise: Why would a bankrupt and internally fractured Pakistan escalate tensions with India? And what does it stand to gain? The reality is, Pakistan’s domestic condition is dire. Blaming India serves as a unifying tool, rallying its population under the banner of religious solidarity.
Historically, Pakistan’s military has benefited from such posturing. It eventually became clear to the Pakistani public that their army could internationalize the Kashmir issue without direct warfare, especially after losing three conventional wars to India.
Moreover, whenever diplomatic dialogues between India and Pakistan progress, the Pakistani military intervenes to derail the process. This is because the existence of the Pakistani state, at least in its current form, relies on perpetual conflict, not resolution.
Once, every religious faction in Pakistan, Hanafi, Salafi, Deobandi, Barelvi, had its own independent terrorist outfits. Today, none of them possess the capacity to act independently on such a scale. This is, perhaps, the clearest testament to the success of India's normalization efforts in Kashmir.
Yet we must not be lulled into complacency. The Pahalgam massacre is a grim reminder that complacency can invite resurgence. Pakistan has been persistently portraying tourism in Kashmir as a tool of “Indian colonialism,” and intelligence agencies had reason to believe that the tourism infrastructure would be a prime target.
The takeaway is clear: We must remain perpetually vigilant. While normalization has advanced, the threat of terrorism is never truly extinguished, only dormant, awaiting an opportunity.
(The views expressed is of the author.)
Note: This post is a reflection on recurring security patterns and geopolitical events based on historical and publicly available information. It is not intended to target or malign any individual, community, or nation. The objective is to foster awareness and dialogue on national security challenges and the importance of vigilance.
